The signal that publishes its losses.
QuarterLine reads Kalshi's 15-minute BTC contracts (KXBTC15M) and calls a lock only when its rules pass. Every graded lock — the wins and the losses — is published. No hand-picked screenshots, no fine print.
13 wins, 2 losses in the last 15 graded locks
Recent form, oldest to newest. Figures as of 2026-11-11. On the live system the record is computed from the stored locks, not typed in by hand — see the full record page.
How it works, in brief
A target is set
Each 15-minute window opens with a target price — a 60-second average of the official Bitcoin index. The contract pays out on whether the closing average lands above or below it.
The rules decide
The system measures how far price sits from the target, scaled by volatility, and checks it against gates for the time left and the price on offer. Most windows fail a gate — and sitting out is the default.
Locks are graded in public
When every gate passes, the lock is frozen and later graded against Kalshi's official settlement. Win or lose, it goes on the record. Nothing is backfilled and nothing is deleted.
New to these markets? Read the beginner guide →
Markets must earn their place
BTC is the founding market. Other 15-minute markets are research until they prove themselves: a market is only packaged for members after it passes the same standing bar on its own paper record and proves its fills. A listed market whose record later hits our kill line is pulled from new sales — its page and record stay public.
First in line: XRP (KXXRP15M) — 21 of 21 paper trades won. It passed. When membership opens, XRP is the first market package in line after BTC.
Join the waitlist
Enrollment opens to this list first, before any public announcement. When checkout switches on, founding-list members get the first invitations — and the first 50 members lock the founding price of $45/month for as long as their membership stays active (standard price $60/month). One email — no drip campaign, no spam.
QuarterLine is an educational information service. It is not financial advice, it does not place trades for you, and it is not affiliated with Kalshi. Prediction-market contracts are risky and can lose their full value — never trade money you cannot afford to lose.